The NeXT Industries - a Conclusion

The NeXT Industries - a Conclusion

In the previous section “Industrial Development”, I discussed how the industrial landscape has changed substantially since the First Industrial Revolution. The industries of today required heavy investment, which was boosted by two World Wars. As explained in my previous essay: “Revolution 4.0 and the Man of Tomorrow”, the Soviet Union was very good at Long Term Planning, but eventually lacked spirit of Innovation. The US applied cyclical economic theory, mixing entrepreneurship spirit with government investment. The country that probably has done things in the best way, the government takes the long term approach, but also provides tax breaks, infrastructure and incentives for businesses to thrive. Industrial societies have been characterized by a continuous battle between owners and employees, where those who own the means of production retain power and influence (many times with collaboration from the local authorities). Post-industrialized societies break that concept, but introducing Knowledge as the most valuable commodity. The NeXT industries still require capital, but not as heavy investment as before. Whereas in the PAST you needed to establish a factory, TODAY you can start a business with just a few dollars and from the comfort of your home. Let us take a recap at what we have seen in this last section “The NeXT industries”.

3D Printing introduces revolutionary printing methods controlled by computers. This amazing technology is used to build prototypes, which are later converted into physical objects. Special softwares are used for 3D modelling, the printer giving an output until a fully formed structure is formed. Some amazing applications include the creation of living cells to create body parts like ears and noses, or even organs for transplants. It is also used in manufacturing, where automation of the production process leads to cost reduction and more efficient processes. How many JOBS will be lost due to 3D printing? Some will be created of course, but as always process automation and efficiencies leads to a reduction in the headcount. However, being able to produce more also means being able to sale more, which in turn increases the demand for product. Companies should always take the lead in automation, since taking the lead will give them the chance to increase their market share and ensure their own survival.

Robotics presents the biggest areas of opportunities for automation. Manual tasks that were done by hand before are today performed by computers. This is very palpable in an everyday office job. Whereas before information was crossed using excel files, today software automation does a large part of the work. This frees capacity for other tasks, but also means less need for resources in the accounting department. Robots already account for 80% of the work in car manufacturing, and have also revolutionized the medical field. Consider the advantages in surgery, were higher precision leads to smaller incisions and scars. Flying drones are already replacing waiters in places like Singapur. They can be also be used for house-keeping. How long until we have a robot house keeper? And what about the dangers of Robotics used in military? Will robots take our place in wars?  

Artificial Intelligence represents the highest intelligence exhibited by machines. It takes robotics to a whole new level, by creating a computer mind that can think like a human. Can machines think like humans? Machines use algorithms for calculations and predictions. The human uses experience and intuition. The human brilliance and genius will never be replaced. However, machines will take more and more tasks, displacing labor and changing the face of the job market. Whenever a computer is involved, AI will be playing a role. Will they eventually develop a mind of their own? Top technologists agree on several risks. According to Elon Musk, AI poses “our biggest existential threat”[90]. According to Stephen Hawkings, AI “could be the worst thing to happen to humanity”[91]. Machines will be more and more present in our daily life. But the big question is: who will control the machines? What if the information that they handle happens to fall in the wrong hands?

Driverless Cars also represent an entire shift in the car industry. Millennials are not so prone to purchasing a car, not being so necessary if you live in a city. Driverless cars mean less need for police, firefighters, doctors, since there will not be a need for drivers. Or it could be that these resources will be reassigned to other activities. As we enter this period of fantastic changes, we will always have the question if automation leads to less job positions, or if the job cuts in some areas will mean more free capacity for these human resources to devote themselves to other activities. Driverless cars will also mean more safety, less car accidents and a more organized traffic system. By 2020, many top companies will launch their own version. How long until these versions not only reach the market, but are also popular amongst final users? Costumer adoption always takes time; I would assume we will see a world full of driverless vehicles by 2030.

The Smart Home is the fully equipped and automated house of the future. By using the latest technology, Home Owners can remotely control their houses even on vacation. Home automation includes communications, entertainment, security, convenience, and information systems. Some examples include: presence detector to control the lights; electronic boards that inform of audio, energy, security, heating, blinds, lighting and weather; automatic garage door; sensors on the roof to record weather conditions and radio signals; home security alarm systems connected to a network of service providers. Today, the technology is only accesible to higher-middle class. With the potentiality of growth home automation is becoming a major industry, and will surely be available for middle income households in just a few short years.

Smart Cities are urban developments which integrate multiple information and communication technology (ICT) solutions to manage local departments information systems, schools, libraries, transportation systems, hospitals, power plants, water supply networks, waste management, law enforcement, and other community services. A Smart City works through Sensors, Networks and Communication. The goal is to make the city work in a more efficient way, referring not only to IT infrastructure but also health, transport, utilities, water management. The Digitalization of the economy is also a very important part of a Smart City. An Innovative, Experimenting and Sustainable environment should be developed in order for entrepreneurs to test their products and concepts. The government can play it’s part by providing the right infrastructure, but in the end it is the entrepreneurs who will innovate and push changes forward. Is the city making full use of it’s HUMAN RESOURCES? Are the people who are not included in the job market put to a productive use? A Smart city must use ALL their resources in the best and most efficient manner. Big Data refers to huge volumes of data that cannot be stored in a traditional way. The amount of data is growing exponentially, being harder and harder to manage. Big Data refers to advancing trends in technology that open the door to a new approach to understanding the world and making decisions. There is a lot more data, all the time, growing at 50 percent a year, or more than doubling every two years. It’s not just more streams of data, but entirely new ones. For example, there are now countless digital sensors worldwide in industrial equipment, automobiles, electrical meters and shipping crates. They can measure and communicate location, movement, vibration, temperature, humidity, even chemical changes in the air. Big Data is processed with the Cloud, and endless Network of normal servers and powerful algorithms. Big Data opens huge business possibilities; endless amount of software and functionalities can be developed to make a more efficient use of all this information. The area of opportunity is there, how to best develop these applications will depend, as always, on the ingenuity and creativity of the entrepreneurs.    

The Internet of Things refers to sensors or chips that are embedded in physical things and are used as data transmitters, which in turn are communicated with an Internet of Things platform. The sensors can be placed on people and/or things. For example, through application cars can be controlled, data from the car offering an appointment time for services, directions or coupons. With the right process, data sends higher level information to machines, computers and people for further evaluation and decision-making. IoT is present mainly in Cloud, Mobility and Applications. It presents a fantastic opportunity for empowering citizens, making government transparent, and broadening information access. However, privacy is coming more and more under threat. Remember the Spider-bug Spiderman used for tracking? A similar bug could be easily purchased and placed for espionage purposes. These type of tools are now accessible to the everyday individual. It will not be long before you have your neighbor spying on you!!!  The Sharing Economy allows people to share resources – equipment, services, and skills – with one another, at a lower cost than traditional. It increases efficiency by joining supply and demand and covering each other needs. In the past, it was difficult to find suitable people for interexchange. Today, thanks to the Internet and Platforms, this has become easier and easier. Some examples include: peer-to-peer lending; crowdfunding; apartment/house renting and couchsurfing; ridesharing and carsharing; coworking; reselling and trading; knowledge and talent-sharing; niche services. Consider the example of Spotify: whereas in the past you needed to purchase the physical record, today you can have access to unlimited music by streaming online. You can also share lists with other users to find and enjoy artists in your genre you had never heard about!!! Want to cut some costs when travelling? Couchsurfing will allow you to find people who are willing to act as your host. Want to find a new partner? Online dating is as popular as ever. You can find people who share your same interests, be it for a romantic escapade or simply friendship. Sharing has always been popular, but mainly amongst friends and people you know. The Knowledge Based Economy introduces technologies that are aimed at connecting people who have a common interest, be it commercial, personal or the simply the joy of meeting people to do something together.  

BitCoin is a digital currency that acts as virtual cash. It is transferred from person-to-person in the form of a digital file or ledger containing names and balances. There is no bank or government prerequisites or control, it is a system that is supported on the trust that people have on the BitCoin system. It offers tremendous growth potential in a world where the majority of the population does not have access to banking services. BitCoin represents the closest to the currency of the future, that which you see in movies were people are paid in “credits” instead of physical money. Will it eventually replace our current monetary system? I do not believe so, but it will most definitely fill in the spots that it leaves empty. Neurotechnologies provide algorithms and software development products which can be used for access control, computer security, banking, time attendance control and law enforcement applications. They are changing the world of medicine as we know it. Some of it’s applications are: diagnostics and treatments, interface for device control, neuromonitoring, vehicle operator system, cognitive training videogames, brain-responsive computing systems, virtual reality treatments, wearables, collaborative cognitive simulations, electrical and magnetic brain simulation.  Nanotechnologies, on the other hand, refers to the manipulation of matter and being able to create new materials and devices with several applications. It’s focus is on small machines to do manufacturing operations, to produce atomically precise products. Some of these applications include: medicine, electronics, food, fuel cells, solar cells, batteries, space, fuels, better air quality, cleaner water, chemical sensors, sporting goods, fabric.

3D Printers, Robotics & Services, Artificial Intelligence, Driverless Cars, Smart Home, Smart Cities, Big Data, Internet of Things, The Sharing Economy, BitCoin, Neuro and Nanotechnologies… How many jobs will be created? And how many will be lost? Will the new jobs created compensate for the loss of jobs? The Fourth Industrial Revolution includes a major shift in industry. From long-term planned economies, to innovation as the key to survival. Before, large investments were needed in order to establish new industries. Today, entrepreneurs find it easier and easier to get funding. How much investment is needed in order to establish all these new industries? Not as much as for the previous ones, described in the section “Industrial Development”. The shift towards a Knowledge Based Economy means that whereas before owning the means of production was the key to success, today knowledge appears as the key for economic success. How much time will it be until the “old industries” disappear, or take a minor role? Consider the example of the plane industry. Even if it still has a predominant role, most of the airlines companies present a loss. In the same fashion as the Railroad before, it is a strategic industry that contributes to a region’s development. No-one can doubt that industries like Oil, Coal, Railroad, Plane, etc., will still exist in the future, but they will not represent such a big percentage of the economy in terms of GDP. The future will be more and more Data Driven. Software, Robotics and Telecommunications will be even more predominant than before. “The NeXT Industries” will represent a major shift towards a technological future, where robotics and automation will take a predominant role. NeXT… does South America understand the importance of pushing forward a joined Space Project? And finally, I reveal what will be the key to success… In the World of Tomorrow.