The Future of The World – a Conclusion

The Future of The World – a Conclusion 

Since in Europe people learn at school that there are only two regions: Europe and The World, I will not go against that principle, and will comment on the different regions of The World, with focus on South America being the region I am most knowledgeable about.  

South America: the future of South America remains open. The richest region in the world measured in natural resources per inhabitant, it has never reached it’s potential. Political differences have a strong impact, with a region still divided by “left and right”. Whether this will be solved in the short term I am skeptical. Every time I meet South Americans, it’s the same question: are you left or are you right? As explained, economic policy should be applied cyclically, so there is not right or wrong here. The region must understand it’s need to put differences in the past and consolidate, using existing channels to integrate and tackle globalization. Also, corruption is the biggest issue. South America misses out huge capital influxes due to skepticism from the international community to invest in a region known for it’s lack of transparency. Some countries have made a lot of progress though: Chile, Uruguay and now Brazil are showing the others “the light”. The population is relatively young, and there are no huge integration issues. Culturally it is only Europeans, Indians, and some Africans (especially in Brazil and North-South America) and a mixture of all these. There is unity, good energies and spirit. And a new well educated generation that is ready to triumph were they parents did not.  

North America: at school in the US you learn that Mexico and the Caribbean region is not “Latin America” but North America. The United States of America must assume it’s role as the region’s leader, and take Central America to development. The Caribbean region is the most underdeveloped in the whole continent, and gives a bad reputation to South American countries, that nothing have to do with it. Due to it’s competitive and fightsy culture, the US will continue being world leader for years to come. It will get a smaller share of the pie now though, and will have to negotiate itself to the top. This is also a game changer that republicans (more prone to war for conquest) might not be ready to deal with.  Asia: the awakening of China after missing out on the Industrial Revolution is already changing the shape of the world. The country is also dragging neighboring countries to growth. Consider as well that the South East Asia region is also politically divided. Whereas some countries like Vietnam are aligned to China, others like Thailand, Malaysia and the Phillippines are under US influence. The American friendly countries are more business friendly, but present higher levels of segregation. The Socialist countries (like China) are more difficult for foreign business but present today still huge levels of growth. India is another case entirely. It will surely continue with strong technological development and growth, but it will never be a superpower like China, who has a millenarian history. And Middle East is extremely conservative, although even there some countries are more open than others.  

Africa: it is almost funny that some people think about Africa as a “country” and not a continent. The globe I present here gives a better idea of dimensions. It is a huge continent, with vast ethnical and language diversity. Growth will continue steadily in the African region, while it catches up to the rest of the world. However, strong inequality will also continue. Corruption both in government and private sector will be the biggest hindrance to quality growth.  Australia: this is blessed country. Strategically located, Australia has commercial bonds to both the US and China. It’s vast natural resources have been well developed. And since it is an island it does not receive big influx of immigrants from neighboring countries (as is the case with Argentina, for example). It will surely rapidly hop on the technological revolution, since they are relatively open to foreign qualified labor.  

Antarctica: the most mysterious region in the world, nobody “owns” the Antarctic but has claims to it. Filled with military bases, limits are not so clear. In the long distant future, this region will gain more importance as the “war for water” begins. Still, small tips of that conflict can be seen today as NATO (hidden behind the UK) refuses to un-occupy the Falklands/Malvinas and demilitarize the Southern Atlantic, in an effort to retain strategic control of the Antarctic. 

Final Conclusion: many changes await the global economy in the next 15 years. While Europe comes to terms with it’s own history and deals with multiculturalism, other regions will continue growing at full speed. Multi-polarism with the US and the BRICS on the table will mean a continuing silent struggle in the realignment of world power. It is clear that there will be winners and losers. My view is that countries that focus on the future will prevail over countries that have succeeded in the past, but are not prepared for a post-industrialized world. Now, more than ever, it is time to talk more about the future and less about the past.